A level-headed approach to autonomy development
Replacing the hype cycle with measured expectations and concrete goals to maximize return on investment
Welcome back to the Nexus Newsletter. In this edition, we discuss the importance of a level-headed approach to autonomy development, explain why a requirements-driven approach to maritime autonomy is critical to success, and provide brief commentary on recent news from the nexus of autonomy and national security.
Navigating the autonomy hype cycle
With the Department of Defense considering autonomous systems for a number of applications across the land, sea, and air, it is imperative that we look beyond the hype to get it right. We need a more level-headed approach to autonomy.
In a new opinion piece for Defense News, Ahmed Humayun, Head of Federal Growth at Applied, proposes a framework to replace the “autonomy hype cycle” with measured expectations and concrete goals. When applied, this framework will yield autonomous systems that are relevant and that are not constrained by legacy technology investments or traditional operational concepts.
“We are exposed to this risk in the current autonomy hype cycle, where we see an impulse toward implementing something called ‘autonomy’ anywhere and everywhere as quickly as possible. But while the impulse is understandable, instead of assuming that autonomy will offer an obvious panacea for perennial challenges, it’s smart to take a step back and determine when and how to leverage different types of autonomy for the enterprise.”
GVSETS
We’re enabling the software-defined vehicle for defense by bringing commercial best practices from the automotive industry to the national security enterprise. Stop by booth 117 at NDIA’s Ground Vehicle Systems Engineering and Technology Symposium (GVSETS) this week to meet our team and learn more.
Sea change: Enabling maritime autonomy
As we’ve seen in Ukraine, unmanned surface vessels can alter the balance of power in the maritime domain (more on that later). Tactical scenarios and a complex threat environment demand a comprehensive understanding of the battlespace, rapid reactions, and large numbers of collaborative systems. Autonomous systems will help the Navy develop the large, coordinated, and resilient network of systems required for success.
As inherently non-deterministic systems that make decisions based on training data and tactical requirements, UxVs need rigorous testing to ensure they will perform reliably across a wide range of threat environments. As Navy R&D programs progress and UxVs become capable of more advanced behaviors, the volume of tests needed to validate performance grows in parallel. That volume can amount to millions of discrete tests needed to adequately assess coverage.
Software-in-the loop testing therefore plays a critical role in validating system performance. Applied’s physics-based virtual testing, simulation, and synthetic data solutions are purpose-built to accelerate requirements-driven autonomy development in the maritime domain:
Map out requirements for system performance and end capability
Create virtual scenarios to assess compliance with requirements
Assess system perception, controls, and vehicle dynamics in each scenario, toggling parameters for weather conditions, actors, sea states, and more
Track progress in an interactive dashboard to identify gaps in testing coverage and areas for improvement
News we’re reading
Autonomous systems are gaining momentum in the national security space. Below, we’ve pulled key quotes from recent articles of interest, plus brief commentary from Applied Intuition’s government team:
C4ISRNET | Emerging tech-focused firms could reshape the Top 100
Key quote: While the same group of large contractors remained at the top of this year’s list, unveiled Aug. 7, experts say there’s growing evidence the defense market may be evolving to offer better and more work to mid-tier firms, particularly those specializing in technologies central to the Defense Department’s modernization plans.
For years, Defense Department officials have spoken about the importance of a diversified industrial base, and tried to create opportunities for companies beyond the top-tier firms that have traditionally dominated the market. [...]
Top service officials have repeatedly said that in order to win the next war, the military must deploy more than traditional fighters, bombers and ships of the past. Instead, it should look to autonomous drones, unmanned surface maritime vessels, hypersonic weapons traveling at more than five times the speed of sound, and waves of small, cheap airborne drones armed with explosives. [...]
“This isn’t so much about bending aluminum, or carbon fiber,” he said. “It’s about software. Typically when you see new entrants in the defense sector, it’s because they ride a wave of new technology. … It’s going to be things like [collaborative combat aircraft, or drone wingmen], or brand new software that will drive this forward.”
Our take: The future of warfare lies in software-defined capabilities. Software is the fundamental enabler of next-generation capabilities, from autonomous systems to advanced battle management. That will inevitably reshuffle the rankings of companies that receive the most defense revenue each year. Today’s prime contractors gained their dominance by being experts in hardware manufacturing at scale. Those primes that appreciate the importance of software and partner with companies that understand software development best practices will be able to maintain their rankings at the top of the list, while those that don’t will be beat out by new entrants to the market.
WSJ | Ukraine’s Sea Drones Alter Balance of Power in Black Sea
Key quote: Ukraine has altered the military balance of power in the Black Sea in recent months, using sea drones to strike back at Russia’s more powerful navy and threaten Russian military supply lines and shipping lanes.
Small, inexpensive and difficult to defend against, the homemade drones have allowed Ukraine to open up a new front in the war, attacking strategic military targets and symbols of Russia’s dominance in the Black Sea—including the headquarters of Moscow’s fleet in occupied Crimea and a bridge connecting the peninsula to Russia. Ukraine says the drones are developed and produced domestically, but has been secretive about the details of the program.
Military analysts say the surface drones could change the complexion of the war by forcing Russia to commit more resources to protecting its ports, warships and cargo ships that it uses to transport weapons, fuel and other supplies for its military. The attacks are also expected to further raise shipping and insurance costs for vessels headed to Russia’s vital Black Sea ports. In concert with recent aerial drone attacks that have hit Moscow, the drones show Kyiv’s ability to strike far beyond the theater of war inside Ukraine.
Our take: Ukraine’s use of unmanned, remotely piloted maritime drones is a clear demonstration of how unmanned assets provide an asymmetric capability. Importantly, the costs imposed by maritime drones go far beyond the damages that they cause. At Nexus 23, Sam Bendett, Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security, stated: “Probably one of the most important results of that attack by uncrewed surface vessels is forcing the Russian military to expend a lot of resources in trying to defend against similar attacks […] The whole point about using unmanned technology is forcing the adversary to spend a lot of resources - whether in trying to destroy these assets or defend against them - and repeat attacks are going to force Russians to spend even more resources to stretch out the Russian Black Sea defenses and to keep the entire peninsula of Crimea on edge as long as the war continues.”
WIRED | Everyone Wants Ukraine’s Battlefield Data
Key quote: The scale of the fighting and the sheer number of weapons systems and high-tech sensors deployed have created a vast amount of data about how battles are fought and how people and machines behave under fire. For businesses that want to build the next generation of weapons, or train systems that will be useful in future conflicts, that is a resource of incalculable value. [...]
Ukraine is very aware of the value of its data, Bornyakov says, cautioning that companies shouldn’t expect to arrive in the country and get access to data for nothing. “This experience we’re in right now—how to manage troops, how to manage them smarter and automatically—nobody has that,” he says. “This data certainly is not for sale. It’s only available if you offer some sort of mutually beneficial cooperation.”
Instead, Ukraine wants to use the data that’s being gathered for its own defense sector. “After the war has finished, Ukraine companies will go to the market and offer solutions that probably nobody else has,” Bornyakov says.
Over the past few months, Ukraine has been talking up its ambitions to leverage its battlefield innovations to build a military-tech industry of its own.
Our take: Ukraine’s battlefield data is extremely valuable. Time series sensor log data from ground, aerial, and maritime systems deployed in the conflict could help train the next generation of autonomous systems for military applications across those domains, for example.
Currently, U.S. autonomy programs have a severe deficit of data. That’s because, at least historically, the DOD has neglected to invest resources into legacy platforms that fly, drive, or sail en masse around the globe to collect, curate, annotate, and share data for autonomy development and testing. Early on, the commercial autonomous vehicle industry spent vast resources to generate enormous quantities of annotated data, accelerating development processes and enabling the production-level autonomy programs that we see in the automotive market today.
Data from the conflict in Ukraine should be seen as a major opportunity for the DOD, not just the companies in the defense industrial base, to rectify years of ignorance of the importance of sensor data.
C4ISRNET | Pentagon innovation hub wants to field commercial tech at scale
Key quote: Now, according to DIU’s new director, Doug Beck, it’s time to make a deliberate shift toward fielding the most military-relevant commercial technologies at a large scale.
That means moving away from a model where DIU fosters these capabilities, tees them up for military units and hopes that they’ll embrace them toward a posture in which the organization is embedded within the services and combatant commands to ensure that the technology they need is making it to the field.
“What we have to do now is take that capability that has been built and employ it for a strategic effect,” Beck told reporters July 20 during a virtual media briefing. “That is what this next phase of DIU is about.”
Our take: “Getting technology, getting capability to the warfighter, where the rubber meets the road, at the speed of relevance. At the end of the day, that’s the only metric.” Those words from Gen. Raymond Anthony Thomas III at Nexus 23 should always be top of mind. Delivering capability to the warfighter is the only metric that matters.